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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 22

Sturm Graz

STU

Hartberg

HAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz45%
Draw25%
Hartberg30%

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.37

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–08.4%
  • 1–27.2%
  • 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession38%
34%Territory24%
29%From set plays57%
0.15Chance quality0.17
8.1%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 2 for Hartberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.