Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Sturm Graz
STU
Hartberg
HAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sturm Graz47%
Draw26%
Hartberg27%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.18
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
36%Territory35%
25%From set plays13%
0.12Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness7.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Hartberg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.