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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 22

Austria Wien

AUS

Ried

RIE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austria Wien42%
Draw27%
Ried31%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.26

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession46%
35%Territory35%
31%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.3%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austria Wien, 2 for Ried. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.