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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Ried

RIE

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ried37%
Draw26%
Sturm Graz37%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.53

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

46%Possession40%
35%Territory34%
26%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.15
8.1%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Ried, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.