Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 21
Ried
RIE
Sturm Graz
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ried32%
Draw27%
Sturm Graz41%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.51
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession55%
38%Territory36%
16%From set plays25%
0.16Chance quality0.12
5.5%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ried, 3 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.