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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Austria Wien

AUS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austria Lustenau41%
Draw27%
Austria Wien32%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.29

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession47%
33%Territory35%
14%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.9%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Austria Lustenau, 3 for Austria Wien. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.