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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Wolfsberger AC

WOL

Grazer AK

GRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wolfsberger AC46%
Draw27%
Grazer AK27%

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.15

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–18.0%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Grazer AK get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

42%Possession46%
33%Territory34%
31%From set plays47%
0.08Chance quality0.10
9.2%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for Grazer AK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.