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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Sturm Graz

STU

Rapid Wien

RAP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz38%
Draw26%
Rapid Wien36%

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.52

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 1–28.1%
  • 1–07.6%
  • 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession55%
34%Territory42%
29%From set plays21%
0.15Chance quality0.13
8.1%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Rapid Wien. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.