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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Ried

RIE

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ried45%
Draw26%
Austria Lustenau29%

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.31

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–09.1%
  • 1–27.1%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

46%Possession45%
35%Territory33%
26%From set plays14%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.1%Directness7.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Ried, 2 for Austria Lustenau. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.