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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Ried

RIE

Austria Lustenau

AUS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ried65%
Draw19%
Austria Lustenau15%

Expected goals

2.28 – 1.05

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 1–18.6%
  • 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ried will have the ball; Austria Lustenau will not mind.

48%Possession37%
38%Territory33%
16%From set plays8%
0.16Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ried, 3 for Austria Lustenau. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.