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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Grazer AK

GRA

Ried

RIE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK31%
Draw26%
Ried43%

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.62

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Grazer AK get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession48%
34%Territory38%
47%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.16
8.1%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grazer AK, 3 for Ried. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.