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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Grazer AK

GRA

Ried

RIE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK46%
Draw27%
Ried27%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.12

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–011.4%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–08.3%
  • 0–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession46%
47%Territory35%
48%From set plays26%
0.06Chance quality0.10
7.7%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Grazer AK, 2 for Ried. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.