Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
LASK
LAS
Sturm Graz
STU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
LASK44%
Draw26%
Sturm Graz30%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.31
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession55%
46%Territory36%
29%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.6%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for LASK, 3 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.