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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

LASK

LAS

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

LASK57%
Draw22%
Sturm Graz21%

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.27

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–19.3%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

66%Possession40%
54%Territory34%
30%From set plays29%
0.12Chance quality0.15
7.3%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for LASK, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.