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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Sturm Graz

STU

Wolfsberger AC

WOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz54%
Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC21%

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.10

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–08.8%
  • 0–06.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession31%
34%Territory28%
29%From set plays31%
0.15Chance quality0.05
8.1%Directness7.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Wolfsberger AC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.