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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Grazer AK

GRA

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK22%
Draw24%
Sturm Graz54%

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.84

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 1–29.8%
  • 0–28.5%
  • 1–36.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sturm Graz will have the ball; Grazer AK will not mind.

46%Possession55%
34%Territory36%
47%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
8.1%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grazer AK, 3 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.