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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Grazer AK

GRA

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK41%
Draw27%
Sturm Graz32%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.27

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession40%
47%Territory34%
48%From set plays29%
0.06Chance quality0.15
7.7%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Grazer AK, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.