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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Sturm Graz

STU

Austria Wien

AUT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz59%
Draw23%
Austria Wien18%

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.01

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.8%
  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.8%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession58%
36%Territory38%
25%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.11
7.0%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sturm Graz, 3 for Austria Wien. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.