Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Hartberg

HAR

Grazer AK

GRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hartberg42%
Draw28%
Grazer AK30%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.18

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

38%Possession54%
24%Territory47%
57%From set plays48%
0.17Chance quality0.06
7.0%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hartberg, 2 for Grazer AK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.