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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Hartberg

HAR

Grazer AK

GRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hartberg62%
Draw22%
Grazer AK17%

Expected goals

2.06 – 1.02

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.8%
  • 1–19.7%
  • 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Grazer AK get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession46%
35%Territory34%
13%From set plays47%
0.12Chance quality0.10
7.9%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hartberg, 3 for Grazer AK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.