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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Sturm Graz

STU

WSG Tirol

WSG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz56%
Draw24%
WSG Tirol19%

Expected goals

1.79 – 0.99

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.7%
  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.8%
  • 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession51%
36%Territory34%
25%From set plays18%
0.12Chance quality0.08
7.0%Directness7.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sturm Graz, 3 for WSG Tirol. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.