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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Sturm Graz

STU

WSG Tirol

WSG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz37%
Draw26%
WSG Tirol36%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.46

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 0–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession55%
34%Territory34%
29%From set plays47%
0.15Chance quality0.14
8.1%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 3 for WSG Tirol. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.