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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Grazer AK

GRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austria Lustenau36%
Draw28%
Grazer AK36%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.31

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 0–08.6%
  • 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession54%
33%Territory47%
14%From set plays48%
0.11Chance quality0.06
7.9%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Austria Lustenau, 2 for Grazer AK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.