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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Grazer AK

GRA

Hartberg

HAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK42%
Draw28%
Hartberg30%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.18

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession38%
47%Territory24%
48%From set plays57%
0.06Chance quality0.17
7.7%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Grazer AK, 2 for Hartberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.