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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 10

Sturm Graz

STU

Ried

RIE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sturm Graz50%
Draw24%
Ried26%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.30

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 2–07.2%
  • 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

40%Possession46%
34%Territory35%
29%From set plays26%
0.15Chance quality0.10
8.1%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Sturm Graz, 2 for Ried. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.