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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Hartberg

HAR

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hartberg50%
Draw25%
Austria Lustenau26%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.22

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 1–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

38%Possession45%
24%Territory33%
57%From set plays14%
0.17Chance quality0.11
7.0%Directness7.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hartberg, 2 for Austria Lustenau. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.