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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Austria Wien

AUS

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austria Wien37%
Draw27%
Sturm Graz37%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.43

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession40%
35%Territory34%
31%From set plays29%
0.09Chance quality0.15
7.3%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Austria Wien, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.