League Two · Matchweek 23
York City
YOR
Salford City
SAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
York City27%
Draw26%
Salford47%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.60
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession55%
26%Territory32%
14%From set plays18%
0.07Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for York City, 3 for Salford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.