League Two · Matchweek 23
Walsall
WAL
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Walsall59%
Draw20%
Cheltenham21%
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.43
Over 2.5
72%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–06.4%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cheltenham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession51%
30%Territory29%
24%From set plays46%
0.18Chance quality0.20
7.8%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Walsall, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cheltenham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.