League Two · Matchweek 23
Swindon Town
SWI
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon48%
Draw25%
Crawley28%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.34
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession51%
35%Territory41%
31%From set plays42%
0.12Chance quality0.10
7.5%Directness6.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.