League Two · Matchweek 23
Port Vale
POR
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale31%
Draw26%
Fleetwood42%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.57
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession53%
33%Territory31%
46%From set plays49%
0.14Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 3 for Fleetwood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.