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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 23

Northampton Town

NOR

Bristol Rovers

BRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Northampton44%
Draw29%
Bristol Rovers27%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.03

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–012.8%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession52%
41%Territory37%
27%From set plays39%
0.08Chance quality0.07
6.4%Directness8.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Northampton, 3 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.