League Two · Matchweek 23
Grimsby Town
GRI
Tranmere Rovers
TRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby68%
Draw19%
Tranmere13%
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.92
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
39%Territory35%
17%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.09
10.6%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grimsby, 3 for Tranmere. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.