League Two · Matchweek 23
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe41%
Draw26%
Oldham33%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.37
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Oldham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession46%
29%Territory41%
15%From set plays37%
0.14Chance quality0.12
6.2%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Crewe, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.