League Two · Matchweek 22
York City
YOR
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
York City26%
Draw25%
Fleetwood49%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.73
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fleetwood get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession53%
26%Territory31%
14%From set plays49%
0.07Chance quality0.13
5.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for York City, 3 for Fleetwood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.