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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 22

Walsall

WAL

Chesterfield

CHS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Walsall42%
Draw27%
Chesterfield31%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.29

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.1%
  • 1–27.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Walsall get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

57%Possession57%
34%Territory39%
35%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.6%Directness7.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Walsall, 3 for Chesterfield. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.