League Two · Matchweek 22
Swindon Town
SWI
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon51%
Draw25%
Exeter23%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.09
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Exeter get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
39%Possession46%
36%Territory29%
26%From set plays44%
0.13Chance quality0.10
8.6%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 3 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.