League Two · Matchweek 22
Swindon Town
SWI
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Swindon43%
Draw30%
Exeter28%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.03
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession44%
35%Territory36%
31%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.08
7.5%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Swindon, 4 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.