League Two · Matchweek 22
Port Vale
POR
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale48%
Draw26%
Bristol Rovers26%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.16
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession52%
33%Territory37%
46%From set plays39%
0.14Chance quality0.07
5.8%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 3 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Bristol Rovers
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.