League Two · Matchweek 22
Port Vale
POR
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Port Vale30%
Draw28%
Bristol Rovers42%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.44
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession46%
35%Territory41%
34%From set plays38%
0.11Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Port Vale, 4 for Bristol Rovers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.