League Two · Matchweek 22
Northampton Town
NOR
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton34%
Draw28%
Cheltenham37%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.35
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Northampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession39%
27%Territory26%
49%From set plays34%
0.07Chance quality0.16
3.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 3 for Cheltenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Northampton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.