League Two · Matchweek 22
Newport County
NEW
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newport39%
Draw30%
Shrewsbury31%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.10
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession42%
25%Territory31%
25%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.08
8.2%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newport, 3 for Shrewsbury. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.