League Two · Matchweek 22
Grimsby Town
GRI
Oldham Athletic
OLD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby69%
Draw17%
Oldham14%
Expected goals
2.67 – 1.21
Over 2.5
73%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Oldham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession46%
39%Territory41%
17%From set plays37%
0.13Chance quality0.12
10.6%Directness8.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Grimsby, 3 for Oldham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.