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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 22

Gillingham

GIL

Barnet

BAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Gillingham29%
Draw24%
Barnet48%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.90

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

66%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–17.1%
  • 2–16.9%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Barnet will have the ball; Gillingham will not mind.

47%Possession58%
27%Territory42%
43%From set plays56%
0.15Chance quality0.13
7.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 4 for Barnet.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.