League Two · Matchweek 22
Gillingham
GIL
Barnet
BAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Gillingham31%
Draw25%
Barnet44%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.68
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession52%
28%Territory40%
17%From set plays28%
0.11Chance quality0.12
7.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Gillingham, 3 for Barnet. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.