League Two · Matchweek 22
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Tranmere Rovers
TRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crewe46%
Draw26%
Tranmere28%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.28
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–27.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
32%Territory36%
33%From set plays19%
0.07Chance quality0.12
6.5%Directness9.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crewe, 3 for Tranmere. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.