Club Football Intelligence

League Two · Matchweek 22

Tue, 29 Dec, 19:45 UTC

Colchester United

COL

19:45 UTC

Crawley Town

CRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Colchester51%

Draw24%

Crawley24%

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.21

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%
2–19.7%
1–09.4%
2–07.8%
1–26.2%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Crawley will have the ball; Colchester will not mind.

52%Possession64%

34%Territory39%

30%From set plays25%

0.08Chance quality0.10

5.8%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 4 for Crawley.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Colchester

Kylian KouassiFW1G 0A 0.53/90
Oscar ThornFW0G 1A 0.34/90
Moses SesayDF0G 1A 0.33/90

Crawley

Danilo OrsiFW1G 1A 0.90/90
Pemi AderojuFW1G 0A 0.44/90
Dylan MorganMF1G 0A 0.39/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.