League Two · Matchweek 22
Colchester United
COL
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Colchester52%
Draw24%
Crawley24%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.21
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession51%
35%Territory41%
27%From set plays42%
0.15Chance quality0.10
6.9%Directness6.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 3 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Colchester
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.