League Two · Matchweek 22
Accrington Stanley
ACC
Rotherham United
ROT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Accrington61%
Draw23%
Rotherham16%
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.90
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession41%
39%Territory28%
34%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.13
7.7%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Accrington, 3 for Rotherham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Rotherham
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.