League Two · Matchweek 21
Shrewsbury Town
SHR
Swindon Town
SWI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Shrewsbury36%
Draw29%
Swindon35%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession39%
31%Territory36%
35%From set plays26%
0.08Chance quality0.13
6.1%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Shrewsbury, 3 for Swindon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.