Club Football Intelligence

League Two · Matchweek 21

Sat, 26 Dec, 15:00 UTC

Salford City

SAL

15:00 UTC

Grimsby Town

GRI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Salford29%

Draw24%

Grimsby46%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.80

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%
1–29.2%
0–17.8%
2–17.0%
2–26.6%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Salford will have the ball; Grimsby will not mind.

55%Possession41%

32%Territory39%

18%From set plays17%

0.08Chance quality0.13

4.3%Directness10.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salford, 3 for Grimsby. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Salford

Luke MolyneuxMF0G 3A 1.18/90
Macaulay LangstaffFW1G 1A 0.89/90
Brendan Sarpong-WireduMF1G 1A 0.72/90

Grimsby

Géza Dávid TuriMF2G 2A 2.22/90
Harvey RodgersDF1G 0A 0.50/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.