League Two · Matchweek 21
Rotherham United
ROT
Rochdale
ROC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rotherham54%
Draw25%
Rochdale21%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.05
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Rochdale get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
54%Possession50%
42%Territory29%
5%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.5%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rotherham, 4 for Rochdale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.