League Two · Matchweek 21
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood47%
Draw26%
Crewe27%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.18
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession49%
36%Territory32%
36%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Fleetwood, 3 for Crewe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.