League Two · Matchweek 21
Fleetwood Town
FLE
Crewe Alexandra
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fleetwood53%
Draw25%
Crewe22%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.08
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fleetwood will have the ball; Crewe will not mind.
53%Possession44%
31%Territory29%
49%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fleetwood, 4 for Crewe. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.