League Two · Matchweek 21
Exeter City
EXE
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter40%
Draw28%
Newport32%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.20
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Exeter get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession40%
29%Territory25%
44%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.14
7.7%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Exeter, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.