League Two · Matchweek 21
Exeter City
EXE
Newport County
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Exeter36%
Draw30%
Newport34%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.19
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Newport get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession39%
36%Territory31%
22%From set plays43%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness9.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Exeter, 3 for Newport. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.