League Two · Matchweek 21
Crawley Town
CRA
Gillingham
GIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Crawley42%
Draw25%
Gillingham33%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.52
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession47%
41%Territory27%
42%From set plays43%
0.10Chance quality0.14
6.6%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crawley, 4 for Gillingham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Gillingham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.