League Two · Matchweek 21
Chesterfield
CHS
Northampton Town
NOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chesterfield61%
Draw23%
Northampton16%
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.88
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chesterfield will have the ball; Northampton will not mind.
57%Possession47%
39%Territory27%
18%From set plays49%
0.13Chance quality0.07
7.1%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chesterfield, 4 for Northampton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.