League Two · Matchweek 21
Cheltenham Town
CHE
Port Vale
POR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cheltenham43%
Draw26%
Port Vale32%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.39
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession53%
29%Territory33%
46%From set plays46%
0.20Chance quality0.14
5.8%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cheltenham, 3 for Port Vale. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Cheltenham
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.