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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 21

Bristol Rovers

BRI

Walsall

WAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bristol Rovers30%
Draw24%
Walsall46%

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.84

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

66%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.0%
  • 1–29.0%
  • 2–17.1%
  • 0–17.0%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bristol Rovers get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession54%
37%Territory30%
39%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.16
8.3%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bristol Rovers, 3 for Walsall. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.