League Two · Matchweek 21
Barnet
BAR
Colchester United
COL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Barnet54%
Draw23%
Colchester23%
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.23
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
40%Territory34%
28%From set plays30%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Barnet, 4 for Colchester. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.