League Two · Matchweek 20
York City
YOR
Crawley Town
CRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
York City56%
Draw22%
Crawley22%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.31
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
64%Possession64%
33%Territory39%
29%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for York City, 4 for Crawley. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.