League Two · Matchweek 20
Rochdale
ROC
Bristol Rovers
BRI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rochdale25%
Draw26%
Bristol Rovers49%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.62
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession46%
29%Territory41%
31%From set plays38%
0.09Chance quality0.07
4.9%Directness9.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Rochdale, 4 for Bristol Rovers.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.