League Two · Matchweek 20
Northampton Town
NOR
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton38%
Draw34%
Exeter28%
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.88
Over 2.5
30%
Both to score
39%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–016.3%
- 1–015.3%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession44%
41%Territory36%
27%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.08
6.4%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Northampton, 4 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 163 matches, not the full season.