League Two · Matchweek 20
Northampton Town
NOR
Exeter City
EXE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Northampton35%
Draw32%
Exeter33%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.06
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.6%
- 0–013.3%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession46%
27%Territory29%
49%From set plays44%
0.07Chance quality0.10
3.8%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 3 for Exeter. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Northampton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.